Chenguang Stationery (603899) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Performance Exceeds Expected Core Advantages
The performance in the third quarter of 2019 exceeded expectations. The university flood performance was outstanding. In the first three quarters of 2019, the company achieved revenue of 79.
500 million, + 29.
8%; net profit attributable to mother is 80,000 yuan, +28.
4%; Realize net profit after deduction.
600 million, +32.
9%; in the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 31.
100 million, + 33%; net profit attributable to mothers3.
30,000 yuan, +32.
2%; net profit after deduction of non-return to mother 2.
3.3 billion, +43.
In the third quarter, the company’s revenue and profit growth rate improved significantly from the previous month, indicating that the revenue recognition period (July-September) before the university flood was outstanding and its competitiveness was strong.
Gross profit margin increased and cash flow was healthy In the first three quarters of 2019, the company achieved a gross 重庆耍耍网 profit margin of 26.
With a net interest rate of 10.
, Are relatively flat compared to the same period last year.
In the third quarter, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 27.
With a net interest rate of 10.
In terms of the three major expenses, the three major expense ratios in the first three quarters were 13.
9%, ten years + 1p.
In terms of turnover, the company’s revenue / payable / inventory turnover days in the first three quarters were 35.
4 days, maintaining a healthy level, and the company’s net operating cash flow increased by 37.
7%, faster than the growth rate of net profit.
The growth of traditional business is accelerating, and the new business is expected to continue to improve profitability. According to product classification, it is estimated that writing / student / office / other / direct sales revenue will reach 18 in the first three quarters.
800 million, an increase of 12% / 36% / 12% / 213% / 48%. Among them, the third quarter is expected to increase by 16% / 50% / 14% / 179% / 37%. Traditional superior category writing and student stationery.The growth rate has increased significantly.
By business classification, the traditional business / new business is expected to grow by 19% / 53% (1H15% / 60%), of which Chenguang Klip + 48% (1H 56%), and continue to achieve profit;The total number of sundry clubs + 91% (1H 95%), including 125 living museums, -15, Jiumu 212, + 97; Chenguang Technology expects revenue of 2 trillion, an increase of 36% (1H 43%).
Risk Warning 1.
The B-end market is fiercely competitive and the growth rate of Klipp; 2.
2. The boutique cultural and creative flagship store turned losses faster than expected; 3.
Competition of international domestic brands in traditional businesses, squeezing growth space; 4.
Systemic risk in the market.
Investment suggestion: Continue to confirm the growth logic, maintain the “overweight” rating company to perform well in the third quarter, and highlight the core competitiveness of traditional businesses. We maintain our profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to its mothers will be USD 10/13 / 1.5 billion in 19-21 Same increase of 26% / 23% / 20%; diluted EPS = 1.
63 yuan, currently corresponding to the corresponding PE = 43/35 / 29x.
After the switchover of the estimates, the reasonable estimate range is raised by 52-53 yuan (20 PE 38-39x) to maintain the “overweight” rating.