In the first quarter, the total value of foreign trade fell by 6.4%, rebounded in March, what will happen in the second quarter

In the first quarter, the total value of foreign trade fell by 6.4%, rebounded in March, what will happen in the second quarter
On April 14, the General Administration of Customs released the first quarterly import and export data under the influence of the epidemic.The total value of domestic imports and exports in the first quarter was 6.57 trillion, down 6 every year.4%, the decline is narrower than the previous two months3.1 average.Among them, export 3.33 trillion, down 11.4%; import 3.24 trillion, down 0.7%.With the progress of resuming production and production, the import and export of foreign trade before March has picked up, and the total import and export ranking is 2.45 trillion, down by 0 every year.8%, which is narrower than that in January-February 8.7 averages.According to a news report from the General Administration of Customs, Li Kuiwen, director of the Statistics and Analysis Department, said at the press conference that the current global epidemic of new pneumonia continues to spread, which has a serious impact on the development of the world economy.The shrinking and shrinking demand in the international market will inevitably have an impact on domestic foreign trade exports. Problems such as the reduction of new foreign trade orders have gradually emerged. Therefore, the difficulties facing foreign trade development cannot be underestimated.”But at the same time, we must also see that China’s foreign trade is strong and competitive, so that its innovation and market development capabilities are also strong.Li Kuiwen said.Exports fell by 6 in the first quarter.4%, the growth of agricultural products imported from the United States was rapidly impacted by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. In the first quarter of the year, foreign trade import and export data continued to decline, with a decrease of 6%.4%, but the decline has narrowed 3 earlier than in January-February 3.1 average.Among them, exports fell by 11.4%, much higher than import 0.Why is there a 7% decline?Bo Peng, associate researcher at the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told Sauna and Yewang that the decline in exports was due to the stagnation of domestic production during the epidemic and the inability to complete export orders, but at the same time the production of other countries remained normal and overlapped the Spring FestivalDuring this period, people had demand for imported commodities in areas such as living consumption, which caused a decline in exports and a decline in imports.Although the data has dropped overall, some of the highlights are also worthy of attention.For example, in the first quarter, long-term imports and exports to ASEAN and countries along the “Belt and Road” increased twice.1% and above 3.2%.At the same time, the decline in imports and exports of private enterprises was also lower than the overall decline, which fell by only 2% in the first quarter, accounting for 42% of the total value of domestic foreign trade.4%, an increase of 1 year-on-year.9 averages.In terms of Sino-US trade, after the initial implementation of the first phase of the Sino-US economic and trade agreement, imports of soybeans, pork, cotton and other commodities from the United States have grown rapidly.Data show that in the first quarter, 355 agricultural products were previously imported from the United States.600 million yuan, an increase of 1.1 times.Among them, 781 imported soybeans.4 digits, increase by 2.1 times; imported pork 16.8 digits, increase by 6.4 times.What is more worthy of attention is that through the promotion of resumption of production and production, imports and exports in March have been clearly picking up.In that month, the import and export of developing countries reached 2.45 trillion, down by 0 every year.8%, which is narrower than that in January-February 8.7 averages.Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the sauna and Yewang that the outbreak was in the Spring Festival during the outbreak in China. After the Spring Festival, migrant workers were unable to return to work on time, and a large number of transportation and logistics were also broken.During this period, the scheduled delivery capacity was not strong, and this situation continued until the beginning of March.In turn, the progress of resuming production and resuming production, as well as the partial backlog of orders back in March and delivery in March, as well as old orders at hand, etc., the import and export data in March recovered.Whether the epidemic is spreading globally, and whether the recovery of foreign trade import and export pressure in the second quarter can continue, the uncertainty is likely under the situation that the global epidemic has become more serious.According to American Johns?According to the latest data from Hopkins University, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the world has exceeded 2 million.In the “Global Trade Data and Outlook” released by the World Trade Organization on April 8, it was pointed out that affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the global trade forecast for 2020 would shrink by 13% to 32%, and the shrinkage might exceed the level of the 2008 international financial crisis.The report also pointed out that global trade may recover in 2021, but there are also uncertainties, which ultimately manifest in the duration of major epidemics and the effectiveness of national anti-epidemic policies.The external environment will greatly impact critical foreign trade imports and exports. Therefore, a large number of experts are cautious about foreign trade performance in the second quarter.Bai Ming believes that starting from late March, the new coronary pneumonia epidemic has spread around the world, so the problem that foreign trade companies cannot deliver goods before has gradually turned into a problem of insufficient orders.This problem was not very prominent last month, and the current performance is more obvious.At the same time, as Chinese companies are part of the international industrial chain, weak market transactions in other countries will also indirectly affect these companies. Therefore, the pressure on foreign trade imports and exports during the second quarter will be great.Peng Bo also believes that under the current global spread of the epidemic, China ‘s foreign trade import and export trend like March is difficult to sustain for a long time. The data in April may be better because the impact of the global epidemic is still deepening.In the process, but after May, the impact of the global epidemic on the economy will continue to deteriorate, and China’s import and export data will also be under pressure.Peng Bo further stated that domestic production is gradually recovering, but the international supply chain will be under increasing pressure, production will stagnate, but they must meet people’s necessary living needs. At this time, these countries may have to import from China.In the third quarter, China’s exports will be better than imports.On April 12, the first batch of international air cargo and mail charters for medical protective materials in Jiangxi Province loaded cargo at Nanchang Changbei International Airport.Epidemic prevention materials may become a new growth point for foreign trade. How should enterprises help themselves under the background of stabilizing foreign trade?Recently, in order to stabilize the basic foreign trade, relevant departments have issued too many stable foreign trade policies, including the establishment of a distributed cross-border e-commerce comprehensive test zone, supporting the development of processing trade, and holding the online Canton Fair for the first time.Assistant Minister of Commerce Ren Hongbin said on April 10 that the current traditional foreign trade has been severely affected by the epidemic, and it is necessary to further leverage the unique advantages of cross-border e-commerce, conduct online marketing, realize online transactions, and help foreign trade overcome difficulties with new formats and new models.It is reported that the 127th Canton Fair will be held online in the middle and late June. The Canton Fair mainly includes online display and docking platform, cross-border e-commerce zone, and live marketing services. It will provide online promotion for enterprises and buyers.Provide services such as docking and online negotiation, so that Chinese and foreign merchants can place orders and do business without leaving the house.In fact, the export of anti-epidemic materials may become the growth point of this year’s annual foreign trade.According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Commerce, as of April 8th, 58 countries (regions) and 4 international organizations have signed medical procurement contracts with Chinese companies, and 71 countries and 10 international organizations areChinese enterprises carry out commercial procurement negotiations.According to statistics from the Chinese Customs, from March 1 to April 4, China exported US $ 10.2 billion of major epidemic prevention materials, including about 38 masks.600 million pieces, 37.52 million pieces of protective clothing, 2.41 million pieces of infrared thermometers, and 1 ventilator.60,000 sets, 2.84 million boxes of new crown virus detection reagents, 8.41 million pairs of goggles.Under various favorable policies, enterprises can also initiate self-rescue by exporting to domestic sales, live broadcasting and bringing goods, and exporting anti-epidemic materials.Recently, media reports said that BYD and Japan ‘s richest man, Softbank founder Sun Zhengyi, reached a cooperation agreement and began supplying 300 million masks to the Japanese market in May, including 1 billion N95 masks and 200 million ordinary medical masks.Wang Jianhui, director of the Capital Securities Research Institute, told reporters that under each major impact, there are some features that are not distinctive and alternative. Foreign trade enterprises with weak competition are eliminated. This is a substitute, but the foreign trade industry should try to reduce thisAt the cost, discover new opportunities.For example, companies can adjust the direction of the market, try to develop emerging markets, and if institutional clients shrink, they can try to develop a personal market.At the same time, you can also adjust your own products and services, add some new functions, or have new ideas in product sales positioning.Medium and large-scale traders can also adjust the model, some of which are from the original simple valet processing, processing of materials or commissioned processing to design and processing.In terms of channels, enterprises may have mainly used old customers or word-of-mouth communication, but now they can also try online marketing and other channels.Bai Ming told reporters that companies can make more use of online resources, online and offline delivery, and at the same time, adopt flexible pricing strategies to maintain trade channels through profit-making methods, as long as the channel is still there, even if the scheduling is less, cheaperTo maintain a good relationship with customers, once the foreign market resumes, orders will be easier to resume. Gradually, export to domestic sales is also a way. Although the current domestic market is not good, at least enterprises can not close their doors.Sauna, Ye Wang Pan Yichun Editor Zhao Ze proofreading Li Shihui